Newsletter · 1 October 2026

Market Brief — September 2026

Gold market in September 2026

Gold slipped 4.8% in September as the US dollar strengthened and prices pulled back from August highs.

Gold opened the month at SGD 178.77/g and closed at SGD 170.16/g — a -4.82% move. The monthly range ran from SGD 170.16/g to SGD 181.94/g (USD 4139.00/oz to USD 4425.49/oz on the international market).

Three drivers

A stronger dollar weighed on gold — The US dollar gained ground in September, supported by solid labour market data and stronger-than-expected business activity. Because gold is priced internationally in US dollars, a rising dollar makes gold more expensive in other currencies — which tends to cool demand and pull the USD price lower. For Singapore buyers, the SGD/USD rate ended the month at 1.2787, meaning the local price in SGD/g fell from SGD 178.78 to SGD 170.16 over the month.

India's festive season began cautiously — Gold prices surged in August and then pulled back in September, which widened the discount between international prices and what Indian dealers were paying locally. While wedding-related buying stayed firm — weddings are rarely postponed because of a price swing — broader jewellery demand was cautious, as shoppers who had watched prices spike in August waited to see where things settled. Gold ETF buying and digital gold purchases in India held steady through the period, suggesting investment-driven demand remained intact even as discretionary buying paused.

Geopolitics kept markets on edge — A US-China trade truce was extended by two months following a Trump-Xi summit, which gave equity markets some relief — major indices ended the period higher. At the same time, the US-Iran standoff remained unresolved, keeping energy prices elevated and inflation concerns alive. Gold often draws attention when inflation worries are in the background, but the dollar's strength and the equity rally together were the stronger force on price direction in September.

Did you know? — Local gold premiums and discounts

When you read that Indian dealers were offering gold at a 'discount' in September, it means they were selling below the international spot price — the opposite of a premium. This happens when local supply outpaces local demand: dealers need to clear inventory, so they cut their price below the global benchmark to attract buyers. The size of that discount is a real-time signal of how strong or weak physical demand is in that market at that moment. When discounts shrink or flip back to premiums, it usually means buyers have returned and the backlog of supply is clearing.

Things worth knowing

Why gold pulled back after a strong August — Sharp price moves in one month often carry a hangover into the next, as buyers who missed the rally wait for a calmer entry point and short-term traders lock in gains. September's pullback — from a high of SGD 181.94/g to a close of SGD 170.16/g — followed exactly that pattern after August's surge. The mechanism is straightforward: reduced urgency plus profit-taking equals lower prices, at least until the next demand signal arrives.

China's Golden Week and gold buying season — The first week of October is China's National Day Holiday — Golden Week — and it traditionally marks the start of the peak gold buying season in the world's largest gold consumer market. Jewellers restock, consumers shop for gifts and jewellery, and local premiums (what Chinese buyers pay above the international price) tend to firm up. In 2026, elevated prices and softer consumer confidence had already dampened China's jewellery demand for most of the year, so the market was watching closely to see whether the holiday season could unlock some of that postponed buying.

Wedding demand versus discretionary demand — Gold demand in large markets like India has two distinct layers that behave differently under price pressure. Wedding-related purchases — gold jewellery and coins bought as part of festive or ceremony traditions — tend to be relatively price-insensitive, because the social occasion sets the date, not the gold price. Discretionary buying, such as someone deciding to add a bangle or a chain for everyday wear, is much more sensitive to price levels and volatility. When analysts say demand was 'resilient' despite a price swing, they usually mean the wedding layer held; discretionary buying is the part that waits.