Newsletter · 2 November 2026

Market Brief — October 2026

Gold market in October 2026

Gold fell 7% in October as investors repriced Fed rate expectations.

Gold opened the month at SGD 171.27/g and closed at SGD 159.26/g — a -7.01% move. The monthly range ran from SGD 159.26/g to SGD 172.33/g (USD 3875.65/oz to USD 4193.67/oz on the international market).

Three drivers

Traders repriced Fed rate expectations — After the US Federal Reserve's October meeting, markets shifted their view on how quickly the Fed would cut interest rates — and gold felt it. According to the World Gold Council, gold's weakness increasingly reflected this repricing of the Fed's expected rate path. When rate cuts look less certain or further away, the opportunity cost of holding gold (which pays no interest) rises in investors' minds, and some chose to rotate into bonds instead.

Leveraged futures sellers led the move — The selling in October was concentrated among leveraged investors trading COMEX gold futures, rather than long-term holders. The World Gold Council noted that Managed Money futures positions fell roughly 11 tonnes from mid-October, while Other Reportable, Non-Reportable and Spreading positions dropped around 70 tonnes combined. Importantly, US gold ETF outflows were relatively modest over the same period, suggesting that everyday and institutional holders were largely sitting tight rather than rushing for the exit.

A stronger dollar added to the pressure — The US dollar stayed broadly firm through October, which tends to make gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies and can dampen demand at the margin. The September backdrop had already set a difficult tone: a surge in US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar had weighed on gold then too, according to World Gold Council commentary published in early October. October carried that momentum forward.

Did you know? — COMEX Managed Money positions

COMEX is the main US exchange where gold is traded as futures contracts — agreements to buy or sell gold at a set price on a future date. 'Managed Money' refers to professional money managers, such as hedge funds, who trade these futures and whose positions are reported publicly each week. When these managers cut their gold futures holdings en masse — as happened in October — it can push prices down quickly, because futures trades settle in large volumes and move fast. It is worth knowing that these are short-term traders, not buyers of physical gold bars; their selling says something about their rate and currency views, but it does not change how much physical gold exists in the world or in your hand.

Things worth knowing

ETF holders held steadier than futures traders — While leveraged futures traders were selling in October, the World Gold Council reported that US gold ETF flows were 'fairly benign' over the same period — meaning everyday and institutional ETF holders were not rushing to exit. This distinction matters: futures positions can move very quickly on short-term macro news, while ETF holders tend to act on longer-term views. The two groups can, and often do, move in opposite directions at the same time.

How Treasury yields connect to gold prices — When US Treasury yields rise, government bonds become more attractive relative to gold, because bonds now pay a higher income and gold pays none. Some investors respond by shifting money from gold into bonds, which puts downward pressure on the gold price. The relationship runs in reverse too: when yields fall, gold's lack of income matters less by comparison. This mechanism — not any single person's decision — is one reason gold and bond yields often move in opposite directions.

Singapore dollar price versus USD/oz — Gold trades globally in US dollars per troy ounce, but what you actually pay here is set in Singapore dollars per gram. In October, the SGD/USD exchange rate closed at 1.2781 — meaning the SGD moved alongside gold's dollar decline to produce the SGD/g close of 159.26. When you track your gold in grams and Singapore dollars, both the international gold price and the currency rate are silently at work in every number you see.